Why Donald Trump Will Win Again

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly teased another run at the Oval Part since his defeat in the 2020 presidential ballot and he'south also continued to brand unfounded claims that fraud deprived him of victory last year.

Trump has reasons to be optimistic about a 2024 run, including his continued widespread support among Republicans and President Joe Biden's recent difficulties and flagging approval rating.

Withal, the onetime president is nevertheless a candidate with a lot of baggage that could outweigh his advantages in three years' time. Though at the moment it seems he might sail through the primary process, the general election could bear witness his undoing.

Here are five reasons why Trump may be pessimistic about another entrada.

ane. Same Old Trump

At this signal, sometime President Trump is very much a known quantity for voters. He'south been a leading effigy in national life since at least 2016 and though he however grabs headlines, many Americans may have become inured to his beliefs.

David A. Bateman, an associate professor at Cornell University's Department of Government, told Newsweek fifty-fifty Republican primary voters might desire something fresh.

"In 2024 he'll be neither a novelty as in 2016 nor an incumbent as in 2020. He'll exist a loser from the past, a twice-impeached president," Bateman said. "It's not an absurd argument to make to a GOP principal audience that maybe they need someone who can actually win more votes than the alternative."

Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the Department of Politics and International Relations at Reading University and co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage, told Newsweek Trump'south status had changed since his beginning run at the White House.

"Trump' 24 is probable to be devoid of fresh ideas," Shanahan said. "In 2016, he was the outsider. After four years in the White Business firm, that claim is diluted. In 2020 he attacked Biden for being sometime and slow. In 2024, a visibly aging Trump will be 78.

"In both elections, Trump offered piddling in new policy other than to whorl back his predecessor'southward actions, largely past way of a snappy slogan. Recent elections in other western democracies have shown an increasing frustration with populism: if policy comes dorsum onto voters' radar, Trump is probable to exist outflanked."

ii. The Popular Vote

Trump has now lost the national popular vote twice - first in 2016 to onetime Secretary of Country Hillary Clinton and so to President Biden in 2020. His 2016 Electoral College victory was due to very narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won all three states in November.

Though it is possible to win the 2024 ballot while losing the popular vote, if Trump cannot win the near votes it volition probable make his path back to the White Business firm more hard.

"He has twice lost the popular vote and he lost more in 2020 than 2016," David Bateman said. "Democrats won't be defenseless apartment-footed in the Midwest again and will be planning to at least consolidate gains in the southwest and southeast."

3. Mixed Midterm Results

Republicans are hoping to take back the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections and it appears they may be on runway to do so. It might seem intuitive that this would help Trump, but 2 years of a politically divided government could potentially play into Biden'south easily.

"While Democrats are expected to do poorly in 2022 midterms, that lone volition mean two years of a Democratic president proposing popular policies and looking like a competent adult confronting an opposition party with majorities in Congress that is likely to be even more than extreme and out of touch than the Tea Political party was," David Bateman told Newsweek.

"So Biden - likely - will be in a better electoral position in 2024 than in 2022," he said.

But if Democrats manage to win the midterm elections, that could provide Biden with a boost heading into 2024.

"Biden may get his infrastructure and economic recovery through in time to agree on to Congress in the midterms," said Marking Shanahan. "In '24, as always, voters volition look to the economy and its touch on their wallets to dictate their voting preference.

"If Biden's policies are driving economical growth, the independents and centrist Democrats Trump needs to win may well stick with the incumbent - be that party or leader."

4. A Sore Loser?

Trump has repeatedly made unfounded claims that the 2020 ballot was "stolen" from him and pressured Republicans to investigate or audit the election - with many in the GOP agreeing that reviews are needed.

There is no evidence of mass voter fraud costing Trump the ballot and his continued comments to the reverse could prove a liability for Republicans, particularly as he recently suggested that his supporters shouldn't vote in 2022 or 2024 if voter fraud isn't "solved."

"His ain inability to accept that he lost is about certainly shared by many in the party but surely some are simply going alone and recognize that he's got some infrequent weaknesses equally a national candidate," said David Bateman.

"They will hope they don't demand to coordinate confronting him, but I await they are taking seriously the possibility of doing so."

Paul Quirk is a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. He told Newsweek Trump could try to overturn the results of the election if he loses.

"Trump does non base decisions on refined estimates of probabilities. He knows the consequence he wants and expects to get information technology," Quirk said.

"Trump realizes there are three different ways he can succeed. He tin win the ballot legitimately, as he did - apart from the Russian help - in 2016. He can go plenty Republicans in enough states, or in Congress, to help him overturn the results of the voting if information technology goes confronting him. His ongoing attack on the election system is making serious progress," he said.

It remains to be seen if the Republican Political party will view Trump's possible attempts to overturn the 2024 election every bit a reason to forestall him from getting the nomination - if they can practice so.

5. Trump'southward Legal Woes

The quondam president is facing a series of legal issues. There is a criminal probe ongoing in Fulton County, Georgia into possible election interference, criminal and ceremonious probes in New York regarding the Trump Organization and fraud litigation existence brought by Trump's niece, Mary Trump, amid many others.

Before this week, a guess in New York ordered Trump to sit down for a deposition in a case involving an alleged assail during a demonstration at Trump Tower in 2015. Any number of legal difficulties could potentially derail some other presidential bid.

"The law may catch upwardly with Trump earlier any campaign gathers momentum," Marker Shanahan said.

"From Georgia to New York to Washington D.C., Trump the private and his wider business organisation arrangement could face anything from 12 to 29 civil and criminal lawsuits that take slowly gathered momentum since he has left the White House.

"Certainly some of the more politically-motivated prosecutors will push their cases hard if there'due south any sign that Trump's most to pause embrace and declare his candidacy. At the very all-time, whatsoever legal proceedings will exist a significant distraction from a run at the White Business firm, and may well scare the money away," he said.

Paul Quirk told Newsweek: "If nothing else, [Trump] tin employ his candidacy to undermine the diverse prosecutions that he may be facing. If his Program A is to win 271 votes in the Electoral College, his Plan B may be to win at to the lowest degree one vote of a juror in whatever criminal trial."